據(jù)海灣新聞網(wǎng)2023年7月6日維也納報道，接近歐佩克的消息人士稱，歐佩克在7月晚些時候發(fā)布第一份2024年全球石油需求前景展望報告時，可能會對明年的全球石油需求增長保持樂觀看法，增長速度預計將比今年放緩，但仍將高于平均水平。

歐佩克對2024年的預測可能會低于今年預計的每天235萬桶或2.4%的增長。由于全球走出疫情，這一增長速度異常之高。

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即便如此，這仍遠高于過去10年的年平均水平，也高于IEA的預測，后者曾預計明年全球石油日需求增長將大幅放緩至86萬桶。

全球石油需求增長是石油市場可能走強的一個指標，也是歐佩克+政策決策依據(jù)的一部分。今年6月，歐佩克宣布將供應限制延長至2024年以支撐市場，原因是對需求疲軟的擔憂令原油價格承壓。

三位歐佩克消息人士表示，盡管2024年的全球石油需求增長可能會放緩，但不會像IEA預測的那樣嚴重，全球石油日需求增長可能會超過100萬桶，也可能低于200萬桶。

“可以預期，2024年的全球石油日需求增長將遠低于2023年。”歐佩克的一位消息人士表示，并補充說，這一數(shù)字可能在150萬至170萬桶之間。

歐佩克預計將在7月13日的月度報告中公布其對2023年的首次需求預測。

“歐佩克將比IEA更樂觀?！绷硪晃幌⑷耸吭谡劦綒W佩克對2024年全球石油需求的看法時表示。

在本周的一次會議上，歐佩克成員國的高級官員如國有石油生產(chǎn)巨頭沙特阿美首席執(zhí)行官納賽爾認為，盡管經(jīng)濟逆風令油價承壓，但對全球石油需求前景表示樂觀。

納賽爾說：“亞洲石油需求正在增長。僅亞洲大國在2019年至2023年之間就日增300萬桶，印度日增100萬桶，因此亞洲石油需求有所增加。”

考慮到經(jīng)濟前景的變化和地緣政治的不確定性，全球石油需求預測者往往不得不進行大幅修正，今年的不確定性包括社交限制措施解除和美國利率上升。

在去年7月發(fā)布的首次預測中，歐佩克最初預測今年全球石油日需求增長270萬桶，后來將其下調(diào)至235萬桶。

李峻 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC upbeat over 2024 oil demand outlook despite slowdown

OPEC will likely maintain an upbeat view on oil demand growth for next year when it publishes its first outlook later this month, predicting a slowdown from this year but still an above-average increase, sources close to OPEC said.

OPEC’s forecast for 2024 will likely be lower than the growth it expects this year of 2.35 million barrels per day, or 2.4 per cent, an abnormally high rate as the world moved out of the pandemic.

Even so, it would still be well above the annual average of the past decade with the exception of the pandemic years and above predictions by the International Energy Agency which sees a major slowdown in demand growth next year to 860,000 bpd.

Oil demand growth is an indication of likely oil market strength and forms part of the backdrop for policy decisions by OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+. The group in June extended supply curbs into 2024 to support the market as concern about weakening demand pressured prices.

For 2024, three OPEC sources said that while demand growth was likely to show a slowdown it would not be as severe as the IEA predicts and growth will likely be above 1 million bpd and likely below 2 million bpd.

“It can be expected that the increase in oil demand in 2024 will be much lower than 2023,” one of the OPEC sources said, adding that it could be between 1.5 to 1.7 million bpd.

OPEC is expected to publish its first demand forecast for 2023 in its monthly report on July 13.

“It will be more bullish than the IEA,” another source said of OPEC’s 2024 demand view.

Top officials from OPEC countries at a conference this week such as Amin Nasser, CEO of state-owned oil producer Saudi Aramco, expressed optimism over the oil demand outlook despite economic headwinds weighing on prices.

“Asia is growing. The big country in Asia alone between 2019 and 2023, 3 million bpd growth, India 1 million bpd growth, so there is a pickup in demand,” he said.

Oil demand forecasters often have to make sizeable revisions given changes in the economic outlook and geopolitical uncertainties, which this year included the lifting of coronavirus lockdowns and rising interest rates of U.S.

OPEC originally forecast demand growth in 2023 of 2.7 million bpd in its first forecast published in July 2022, later revising it down to 2.35 million bpd.

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